Friends, tonight there is a key market event: the US December CPI data will be released at 21:30 Beijing time (8:30 AM Eastern Time). This data will have a profound impact on the market for the next two weeks, and the influence could be greater than you imagine.

Let's take a quick look at the core figures: the market generally expects year-over-year CPI to be 2.70% (unchanged from the previous value), and the month-over-month change to be 0.30%. It seems like there’s no change, but at a time when the Federal Reserve’s opinions are deeply divided, even a 0.1% difference is enough to trigger market volatility.

Why is this data so critical? Simply put, CPI is a key indicator of the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. Currently, the market is speculating whether there will be rate cuts in 2026, when they might happen—some say as early as the first half of the year, others say to wait until mid-term, and some even believe there might be no cuts at all. This CPI data is the knife that can cut through all those guesses.

Looking at two extreme scenarios: if the data exceeds 2.7% (unexpectedly), hawks will immediately come out to speak, as inflation has not been fully subdued, and rate cuts will be delayed. In this case, the dollar will strengthen, Treasury yields will rise, and crypto assets will face pressure. If the data is below expectations, it’s a different story: the market will trade on rate cut expectations, and risk assets will be in favor.

At this critical juncture, any deviation in the news can trigger a rollercoaster market. So don’t miss this key data release, as it could determine the direction of your upcoming investment decisions.