Regarding the RIVER token, I have to be honest—I’ve been a long-time fan, made profits, and caught some mid-market swings. But frankly, this coin has also wiped out my positions before. Recently, I’ve been pondering a question: will this coin surge past 30 first, or fall back to 10?

My judgment is: it will definitely rise first. As for when the price of 10 will reappear, at this stage, it’s almost impossible in the short term. The key point is that the previous correction bottom did not break the 10 level.

Based on the current pattern, it’s hard to see this coin retrace below 15 in the short term. Looking at the 4-hour chart, it’s currently in the second wave. If you are a short-term trader using 15-minute charts, the fourth wave has already completed, which can lead to misjudgment. Once you think it can’t recover in the short term, your mindset might collapse, leading to a sharp decline—that’s a trap.

Anyone who experienced the last bull market understands this well, especially that wave in 2021. Few coins’ gains were based on logic. Once the market starts moving, it can multiply tenfold, even dozens of times. As long as the overall market remains hot, these coins will continue to rise.

The most memorable wave for me was AXS. When it shot from a few cents to near $10, a large number of short positions accumulated. Many people were confident it would crash, but the whales didn’t think so—they induced short positions during every correction. When it surged from 10 to 20, it was still oscillating upward. The faster it rose, the more short sellers were unwilling to give up, even some long traders who had already made profits got left behind. The final situation completely exceeded technical analysis and turned into a pure market sentiment game. No one expected a so-called “worthless” gaming token to surge to $160.

Now, RIVER has a bit of AXS’s shadow. Of course, the crazy bull market back then is unlikely to be fully replicated. Whether to go long or short depends on your risk tolerance. But remember: when it’s time to cut losses, you must cut losses.