The most frequently asked question recently is: should we be optimistic or cautious now? Many people watch the K-line fluctuate daily, and their mindset also swings accordingly. But after experiencing a few complete cycles, it becomes clear that the market's true signals won't be shouted out; they will be revealed through drops in price.

Looking back at this year's trend can give us some clues—Bitcoin fell from 126,000 to 94,000, dragging many altcoins down with it, with 70-80% declines common across various tokens. I remember during that period, some "monster" coins surged three to five times in a single day, which felt ominous. This scene is quite familiar—late 2021 was similarly crazy, and then it entered a liquidation cycle.

I had issued some risk warnings back then, but was criticized for being overly pessimistic. Now, with a $19 billion leverage wipeout, everything has been made clear, and the market has given the strongest response on my behalf.

This correction is not unfounded. The 18th month after a halving cycle is typically prone to a cooling-off period. Plus, both the 200-day and 365-day moving averages have been broken, making 72,000 a critical support level for whether the price can continue downward. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's stance remains hawkish, liquidity is tightening, and the Christmas rally is unlikely to ignite.

The year's end direction is quite clear: the 80,000 to 90,000 range will oscillate repeatedly. If 80,000 cannot hold, we might enter a new cycle phase. But don’t be too pessimistic, because ETF daily net inflows are still around $253 million, indicating that big funds haven't completely exited—they're just waiting for opportunities.

Rather than obsessing over whether it's a bull or bear market right now, it's better to focus on three practical things: first, keep enough ammunition and don't go all-in; second, identify the main trend clearly and don't be fooled by noise; third, never act rashly out of panic. Opportunities are like that—they never appear when the noise is loudest, but quietly emerge during the market's calmest moments. So, instead of chasing every fluctuation, patience is the real valuable asset.