2026-01-14 03:20:35

Entering the high-speed cycle from 2020 to 2026, the fundamental contradiction in the blockchain industry has remained unchanged: cutting-edge technology cycles combined with early speculative frenzy, but very few projects that can create long-term value, and this value is often difficult to quantify with traditional metrics. This scenario is actually very similar to the chaos of early tech stocks in the last century.

Interestingly, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have always had a subtle attitude towards BTC — outwardly opposed, but their underlying logic is worth pondering. They are not simply against new technology, but oppose "high premium expectations under extreme uncertainty," and more so, oppose "valuation systems without cash flow support." This may sound like a shackling of traditional thinking, but for the long-term healthy development of Web3, it is a sharp warning.

Munger and Buffett have emphasized for decades a core logic: a company's true value comes from the free cash flow it can sustainably generate in the future, not from market sentiment, storytelling, or temporary consensus pushing prices up. It sounds dull, but this is the dividing line between speculation and investment.

The valuation logic in the tech industry is indeed vastly different from that of traditional industries, and the cycle rhythm is completely different. But at its core, it’s still the same — a company (or a Web3 project) must be able to generate its own blood. Projects that rely solely on storytelling or just drawing pie charts, no matter how attractive the concept, cannot withstand the test of time.

Applying this long-term framework to Web3 becomes particularly clear. Truly healthy ecosystem projects should be those capable of self-operation and continuous value output. This is not to say that innovation or conservatism should be abandoned, but rather that "sustainable output capability" should be regarded as the primary metric for evaluating projects. Projects without real revenue, without actual user traffic, and solely relying on fundraising to survive, no matter how beautiful their whitepaper, cannot change their fate.

From another perspective, this is precisely a rational return that the Web3 industry needs.

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ChainSauceMaster

· 01-14 03:50

That's right, nowadays, projects that can generate their own revenue are indeed rare; most are still just storytelling for fundraising. A white paper looks good, but it's useless; what matters is whether real money can flow in.

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YieldFarmRefugee

· 01-14 03:47

You're absolutely right. Projects still hyping concepts are basically dead ends. Really? Applying Buffett's logic to the crypto world is just perfect; cash flow is the real indicator. A white paper, no matter how beautiful, is useless if it can't actually make money. The ability to generate revenue hits the mark—many projects rely solely on fundraising to survive. It seems there are really few people in the crypto space who are truly sober now, still all-in on those income-less ventures. That's the fundamental difference between investing and gambling—sounds dull but it's the most practical. Once the bull market passes, you'll see who's actually swimming naked. By then, it'll be too late to cry.

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AllInAlice

· 01-14 03:44

After all this talk, it still boils down to "self-sustainability"... Projects that rely on storytelling should clear the field.

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LiquidationSurvivor

· 01-14 03:44

You're absolutely right. These days, a bunch of projects write flashy whitepapers, raise funds round after round, and no one asks about user growth... Real earning power is the key, and old Ba is right about that. Projects still hyping concepts will all show their true colors once the bear market hits. It's not interesting.

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TokenUnlocker

· 01-14 03:43

Buffett's logic has actually seen through the crypto world a long time ago; the problem is no one listens. Honestly, the idea that cash flow is king applies everywhere, and Web3 is no exception. Projects that rely on fundraising to survive are doomed—it's just a matter of time. So, you need to find an ecosystem that actually generates revenue; otherwise, it's just gambling. A white paper looks good, but what's the use if it can't make money? It sounds simple, but in practice, it's extremely difficult; most projects can't even generate real revenue. This wave of returning to rationality actually comes at a good time; otherwise, continued hype is pointless. Having a story alone isn't enough; you need real users to count.

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NotFinancialAdvice

· 01-14 03:30

That's correct, but the reality is that 99% of projects are just storytelling, and they all sound like they can raise money.

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All-InQueen

· 01-14 03:24

There's nothing wrong with that, but right now there are still too many air projects blowing bubbles, raising funds round after round, with zero user base. Old Mr. Ba's logic is the same in the crypto world—cash flow is the real indicator. How long can storytelling fool people? But to be honest, projects with genuine revenue-generating ability are rare; most are just betting on the next round of funding. No matter how beautiful the white paper is, it’s useless. The key is whether you can retain users—that's the line between life and death.

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