The divergence behind Bitcoin and M2 decoupling: Will 2026 be a rebound or a peak?

The decoupling phenomenon between Bitcoin and the global M2 money supply is intensifying, and this historic divergence has sparked fierce debate in the market. From mid-2025 onwards, the correlation between the two has gradually loosened, becoming quite evident by early 2026. Once considered a bullish predictive basis, this correlation has now become a suspense: does it signal a new upward cycle, or is it a sign of market top?

Two Interpretations Behind the Decoupling Phenomenon

Optimists: Decoupling is a Temporary Adjustment

Fidelity Digital Assets maintained an optimistic stance in their January report. They believe that as the world enters a monetary easing cycle and the Federal Reserve’s QT (quantitative tightening) plan concludes, the M2 growth rate will continue to rise through 2026. Under this logic, the decoupling of Bitcoin price from M2 is just a short-term phenomenon; ultimately, Bitcoin will rebound to catch up with M2’s growth trajectory. Analyst MartyParty holds this expectation, believing that a price rebound is highly probable.

Pessimists: Decoupling is a Risk Signal

However, the view from Mister Crypto is entirely opposite. He points out that historically, the decoupling of Bitcoin price from M2 often signals the market top, followed by a 2 to 4-year bear market cycle. This interpretation is based on historical patterns, suggesting that decoupling itself is a sign of overheating.

Capriole Investments’ founder offers another perspective: decoupling may reflect concerns over quantum computing cracking Bitcoin’s encryption. While this involves longer-term risks, it also indicates that the market’s consideration of different risk factors is increasing.

The Current Market Reality

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s current price is around $95,293, up 4.58% in 24 hours and 2.56% over 7 days. Its market capitalization reaches $1.90 trillion, accounting for 58.59% of the entire crypto market. These data show that the market still has some upward momentum, but volatility must also be acknowledged.

How to Understand These Divergences

The significant divergence in analyst opinions reflects a core issue: the relationship between Bitcoin and traditional macroeconomic indicators is changing. This may be due to several factors:

• Large-scale participation of institutional investors altering market structure
• Increasing independence of Bitcoin as an asset class
• Growing complexity of geopolitical and policy environments adding uncertainty
• Diversification in market participants’ perceptions of Bitcoin’s value

Implications for 2026

This decoupling phenomenon and the divergence among analysts tell us that the Bitcoin market in 2026 is full of uncertainties. Both the optimists and pessimists have their logical bases, but all rely on assumptions. For example, optimists assume global monetary policies will indeed remain accommodative, while pessimists assume that historical patterns will fully repeat.

Summary

The decoupling of Bitcoin and M2 is an objective phenomenon, but how to interpret it depends on your understanding of macroeconomics, market structure, and Bitcoin itself. Whether aiming for a rebound or guarding against risks, understanding these different viewpoints is essential. Investors should recognize that there will be no single “correct answer” in 2026; the market will continue to evolve based on actual economic data and policy changes. In such an environment, staying vigilant and flexible in adjusting strategies is more important than betting on a single viewpoint.