Experts also get wrecked? "Victory God" used 40x leverage to short BTC, with a floating loss of 29,000, but the historical win rate is as high as 97%

On-chain trader “Basheng War God” (0x4331c) recently shorted 42.25 BTC with 40x leverage, opening the position at an average price of $94,680.1. Currently, he is experiencing an unrealized loss of $29,000. This operation has attracted attention, not only because of the scale of the unrealized loss but also due to this trader’s historical performance—winning 155 out of 159 trades, with a total profit of $291,200. Why did a trader with over 97% win rate encounter an unrealized loss this time? What market signals does this reflect?

Performance vs. Unrealized Loss Disparity

“Basheng War God” has an impressive track record. According to Hyperinsight monitoring data, this address has completed 159 trades, with only 4 losses totaling $5,191.12; the remaining 155 trades were closed with profits. This results in a win rate of 97.48% and a total account profit of $291,200.

However, in this shorting operation, he is experiencing an unrealized loss. The recent rise in BTC price is closely related to this. Latest data shows BTC at $95,293.30, up 4.58% in 24 hours. Compared to the entry price of $94,680.1, BTC has risen by about $613, directly causing the short position to be in loss.

Risks of High Leverage Trading

The key factor here is the 40x leverage. At such high leverage, even a price fluctuation of about 1.6% can significantly impact the account. Specifically:

• Short position size: 42.25 BTC, approximately $4.03 million at current prices
• Leverage: 40x
• Actual margin: about $100,000
• Current unrealized loss: $29,000

This means the account has already lost 29% of its principal. For high-leverage trading, this is a dangerously high level.

Insights from Position Changes

Notably, compared to the data from January 12, this trader has adjusted his position. On January 12, he shorted 49.95 BTC with an unrealized loss of $6,500; by January 14, the short size was reduced to 42.25 BTC, but the unrealized loss expanded to $29,000. This suggests he may have taken some stop-loss or partial profit-taking during the price increase, but the remaining position’s unrealized loss has worsened.

Market Impact Assessment

Although this is an individual trader’s operation, the transparency of on-chain data means that such large short positions with unrealized losses carry two market implications:

First, the unrealized loss of a high-win-rate trader could serve as a contrarian signal. When smart money in the market incurs losses, it often indicates that the market trend exceeds expectations, possibly signaling that bearish sentiment is cooling at the current price level.

Second, if the 40x leveraged short position remains trapped, the trader faces the risk of forced liquidation. Once triggered, forced liquidations will release buying pressure, potentially pushing BTC prices higher.

Summary

The unrealized loss of “Basheng War God” more reflects that BTC’s recent upward momentum has exceeded this trader’s expectations. Although a single unrealized loss breaks his nearly perfect record, it does not negate his overall trading capability—his $290,000 profit still demonstrates professionalism.

From a market perspective, this operation suggests that even traders with over 97% win rates can encounter pitfalls. The risks of high-leverage trading should not be underestimated. Meanwhile, the transparency of on-chain data allows market participants to observe smart money’s movements more directly, but blindly following top traders’ operations remains risky. Future focus should be on the subsequent development of this short position and whether BTC can continue its upward trend.