#机构加密资产配置 Seeing the data on this wave of ETF net outflows, what comes to mind is the scene before the 2017 bull market peak. Back then, institutions hadn't yet entered the market on a large scale, and retail FOMO-driven price surges ultimately paid the price.

But the current situation is entirely different. An outflow of $782 million sounds alarming, but a closer look at the context reveals that—Christmas holidays, year-end rebalancing, and natural liquidity decline—these are all seasonal factors. More importantly, Bitcoin's price remains steady at $87,000 despite the net outflow, with no signs of panic selling. This precisely indicates the maturity of institutional sentiment.

I've experienced too many "wolf coming" moments. During the 2018 crash, institutions hurriedly fled; during the 2020 March 12 plunge, many institutions cut losses. But this time is different—six consecutive trading days of outflows totaling over $1.1 billion, yet no price collapse, and stability is maintained. This shows that the holding structure has improved, with true long-term allocators taking the lead.

Holiday outflows are normal. I've seen many cycles, and real turning points are never this mild. When trading resumes in January and institutional funds reassess their holdings, it will be the best time to observe their asset allocation intentions. Only then can the data flow truly tell us the institutions' genuine outlook on the market. This wave of outflows is less a sign of bearishness and more a normal market adjustment.