Unlocking imminent, TRUMP faces $271 million selling pressure test

TRUMP (Official Trump) experienced a short-term rise driven by positive policy expectations, but the upcoming large token unlock is now a market focus. According to the latest news, as of January 14, TRUMP is trading at $5.70, up 6.18% in 24 hours, with a market cap of $1.14 billion. However, only 4 days remain until the large unlock on January 18. Will this risk test the market’s true capacity?

Short-term Rise Driven by Policy

Support from Crypto Regulatory Frameworks

The clear stance of the Trump administration on cryptocurrencies is generating positive market expectations. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission chairman expressed confidence in completing the crypto market structure legislation by 2026, which is seen as aligning with Trump’s strategic goal to make the U.S. a global crypto hub. The recent updated draft bill from the Senate includes detailed regulations for stablecoin reward mechanisms. This gradual refinement of the institutional framework provides clearer development prospects for compliant digital assets including TRUMP.

Market Sentiment-Driven Short-term Performance

As an official Trump-themed digital collectible card token, TRUMP naturally benefits from political enthusiasm and policy expectations. A 24-hour trading volume of $270 million indicates high market participation, with bullish sentiment prevailing in the short term. Recent data shows TRUMP has increased by 0.23% in 1 hour and 4.42% over 7 days, demonstrating a sustained upward trend.

Imminent Unlock Risks

50 Million Tokens to Be Released

According to the latest news, TRUMP will unlock 50 million tokens at 8:00 AM (UTC+8) on January 18. This unlock involves the following key data:

Such a large unlock could inject significant liquidity into the market in the short term. Historical experience shows that token unlocks of similar scale often lead to short-term selling pressure.

Whales Exiting as a Risk Signal

Market data indicates that whale movements reflect cautious sentiment about the future. A well-known holder sold 437,000 tokens worth $2.35 million at a 50% loss after holding for eight months. While this scale is relatively small, it sends a clear risk signal—institutions and large holders are gradually reducing their positions.

Technical and Market Structure

Key Price Level Analysis

Based on recent technical analysis, TRUMP faces clear support and resistance levels:

• Resistance: $5.85
• Breakout Level: $5.74
• Current Price: $5.70
• Support: $5.09

In the 24-hour trading range of $5.26 to $5.73, TRUMP shows a bullish bias but with limited strength.

Market Participant Structure

With a 24-hour trading volume of $270 million across 680 trading pairs, TRUMP’s liquidity appears relatively sufficient. However, approaching the unlock, ample liquidity might make it easier for sellers to find buyers, potentially accelerating selling pressure.

Risks and Opportunities Under Policy Background

Uncertainty Factors

While advancing crypto regulatory frameworks are positive, factors such as pressure from the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical tensions are increasing overall market risk appetite volatility. Safe-haven assets like gold are supported, which could divert some risk capital and impact high-volatility assets like TRUMP.

Project Fundamentals

TRUMP operates on Solana and TRON blockchains, with an initial supply of 200 million tokens, planned to grow to 1 billion within three years. Users can purchase via the Moonshot platform using various payment methods. The project has launched a giveaway program, allowing early official product buyers who meet certain conditions to receive 3 free TRUMP tokens. These fundamentals provide a basic ecosystem foundation for the project.

Summary

TRUMP’s short-term rise reflects market optimism about the Trump administration’s crypto policies, and the progress of the policy framework offers a clearer path for compliant digital assets. However, the upcoming 50 million token unlock (worth $271 million) and whale exit signals together suggest the market may face short-term correction pressures.

Key points to watch include: first, the market response after the January 18 unlock; second, whether policy expectations can support the market through the unlock period; third, whether technical levels can hold at $5.09. While the unlock may cause short-term volatility, in the long run, the improvement of the policy framework provides a more stable outlook for compliant tokens like TRUMP. Market participants need to balance short-term risks with long-term policy expectations.