Why Has the Much-Anticipated Altcoin Season Not Arrived Yet? Market Analysis Expert Provides an Overview

While many investors are expecting an explosive “altcoin season” similar to previous cycles, the reality of the current cryptocurrency market is heading in the opposite direction. Capital is flowing out of altcoins, risk-averse sentiment is increasing, and retail investors’ interest is gradually shifting to other sectors. Altcoins Face Heavy Capital Outflows, Short-Term Uptrend According to the latest OTC trading report from Wintermute – one of the largest market makers in the crypto market – altcoins in 2025 have only maintained an average upward trend for about 20 days. This figure is significantly lower than previous periods, when bullish cycles typically lasted from 40 to 60 days. Notably, the number of open positions in the altcoin futures market has decreased by up to 55% since October, equivalent to over $40 billion in closed positions. This indicates that speculative capital is rapidly retreating from small-cap assets. Investors Return to Bitcoin and Ethereum Mr. Jake Ostrovskis, Head of OTC Trading at Wintermute, believes that the decline is not only due to waning interest in altcoins but also because retail investors are reallocating their funds into larger, more stable assets, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum. In the context of volatile macroeconomic conditions, the crypto market is heavily influenced by monetary policies and geopolitical factors. Statements by US President Donald Trump regarding tariffs, as well as expectations of interest rate cuts, have caused significant Bitcoin volatility recently. Major sell-offs following tariff announcements in April and October last year have left a cautious sentiment across the market. Market Still in a Weak State Mr. Cosmo Jiang, partner at Pantera Capital Management, commented that the overall outlook remains quite negative: “Based on most indicators, the market is still highly volatile and trending downward. Bitcoin needs to lead the way to create a healthy recovery cycle.” Similarly, CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index shows that assets outside the top 10 by market cap have performed significantly worse than major coins over the past 90 days. Particularly, the heavy sell-off in October caused the market to evaporate up to $19 billion in a single day, and there has been no clear recovery since. Speculative Capital Shifts to Other Sectors Wintermute strategist Jasper De Maere stated that altcoin liquidity remains sluggish, while speculative capital is seeking “new lands.” If in 2021, crypto was the focal point of a global speculative wave, now retail investors’ attention is shifting to topics such as space, quantum physics, robotics, and artificial intelligence in the stock market. Conclusion The much-anticipated altcoin season has not yet arrived due to multiple factors: capital outflows, risk-averse sentiment, macroeconomic impacts, and competition from new investment trends. In this context, Bitcoin continues to hold a central role in the market, and only when BTC truly enters a sustainable growth cycle will altcoins have a chance to re-enter the race.