#美国贸易赤字状况 $DOGE from dream to breakdown, behind it is a market tear.

Some are targeting a technical goal of $33, while others are shaken out at $0.14. Ironically, these two types of traders are likely the same group—just with completely reversed mindsets.

**The "Starry Sea" promised by technical analysts**

Based on a Fibonacci extension structure spanning over ten years, professional institutions estimate the target price for DOGE in this bull market to be around $33.25. This figure is not just a figment of imagination but derived from cold, hard mathematical models. If historical cycles repeat, this hypothesis is not far-fetched.

**But the other side of reality is painfully clear**

The Federal Reserve’s policy independence is collapsing. Powell faces criminal investigations for refusing to cut interest rates, which has far exceeded traditional political game boundaries. Under such extreme uncertainty, global liquidity is secretly flowing, and rate cut expectations are just illusions.

Meanwhile, DOGE’s market signals tell a different story: although MACD shows a golden cross and RSI is overbought, trading volume is shrinking—funds are quietly leaving. Market concentration remains low, indicating a lack of institutional-level capital support. This rally is almost entirely driven by retail FOMO. Whales have long been lurking in the $0.14–$0.142 pressure zone, waiting for the right moment to distribute.

**The paradox of long-term models versus short-term harvesting**

This is the absurdity of the market: decade-long structural hints suggest a hundredfold potential, but the short-term order book is full of traps and temptations. Any positive news—be it ETF rumors or partnership announcements—under a lack of incremental capital, is just a prelude to dumping.

**What choices will you make**

Stick to the ten-year technical logic and ignore monthly fluctuations? Or keep a close eye on every political move by the Federal Reserve, always ready for short-term risk avoidance? This is not just a DOGE issue; in an era full of macro uncertainties, it’s a deep dilemma for all crypto asset allocations.

Share your answer in the comments: do you trust the ten-year commitment of technical structure, or the Federal Reserve’s decision next month?