2026-01-14 01:36:54

Prediction markets are mathematically a zero-sum game system, relying fundamentally on the clever design of scoring mechanisms and convex cost functions. The real issue is that most platform operators only use simple linear pool addition and subtraction, which results in the market being unable to effectively discover probabilities. Instead, it becomes a pure capital allocation tool and is systematically trapped by path dependence.

To put it plainly—if you haven't even understood the basic theory of convex function models, and you're thinking about launching a prediction market? At best, you're just running a casino, with no real innovation. The value of prediction markets lies in information aggregation and probability calibration, not just capital flow. This pitfall needs to be addressed.

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ChainBrain

· 13h ago

This is exactly the current state of the industry. Most project teams do not have a deep understanding of mathematical fundamentals, and they dare to deploy linear models in production environments, resulting in a mess.

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DevChive

· 21h ago

To be honest, most prediction market platforms are just casinos disguised as technology, never really thinking about how to do information aggregation. --- They launched platforms without understanding convex functions—no wonder they lose money. --- Path dependence hits hard—choosing the wrong model early on, no matter how you change it later, it can't be saved. --- It seems many teams just want to go live quickly and make money; they haven't put any effort into mathematical models. --- So, how many prediction markets are truly working on probability calibration? Most are just capital pools. --- Designing convex cost functions is the core, but it seems no one takes this seriously.

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NftMetaversePainter

· 01-15 08:56

honestly most "prediction markets" out there are just poorly disguised gambling pools with linear math slapped on... the algorithmic architecture matters way more than ppl realize, and that's where the real paradigm shift happens

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MetaverseMortgage

· 01-14 02:04

Oh, you're so right. It's just a bunch of people treating linear pools as treasures, but the results are even worse than traditional casinos. --- If you can't even understand convex functions, how do you expect to build prediction markets? That's really a bit absurd. --- The key issue is that these platforms simply haven't figured out what they're doing; their information aggregation is completely ineffective. --- Casino is just a casino, why insist on calling it a prediction market? It might actually be more honest that way. --- Who will fill this trap of path dependence? It feels like the entire track is stuck. --- The problem isn't about having more or less money; it's that the people designing the mechanisms might really be missing a crucial point. --- If probability calibration can't be done, then prediction markets are really just a ponzi scheme in disguise. --- They haven't even understood basic theories, and projects built on hype and fundraising are definitely doomed.

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TestnetScholar

· 01-14 01:46

Haha, really. Most platforms are just putting on the facade of a prediction market, but in reality, they're just a money game wheel. They haven't even grasped the basic models and are still bragging about it.

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MetaverseHomeless