A revealing phenomenon: Bitcoin has been surpassing the $100,000 mark for over 50 days across the entire network, yet it hasn't truly stabilized even at $95,000, repeatedly surging and then falling back. Many are driven by FOMO to chase the highs, only to be repeatedly drained in the volatile market, transforming from steadfast holders into emotionally shattered investors.

However, the overall trend of this wave has long been signaled by multi-cycle structures. Let's break it down:

**4-hour timeframe still in a downtrend channel**

The 4-hour downtrend wave of Bitcoin hasn't completed yet; this is already the fourth decline. Judging by the level structure, this drop is likely to probe around 86,000, with an extreme possibility of briefly testing the 85,000 level. Don’t think this is alarmist; in reality, institutional funds are quietly adjusting positions amid these oscillations, with retail stop-losses being sequentially triggered, thus reserving space for a genuine rebound later.

**1-hour timeframe: the rebound is nearing its end**

Many people can't understand why each rebound falls just short. The key lies in the lack of understanding of the 1-hour linkage logic. Previously, it was predicted that over the weekend, Bitcoin would consolidate sideways before surging to the 92,000-93,000 range, and today it precisely touched around 92,500, perfectly aligning with expectations. The critical point now is: the 1-hour rebound has basically ended. Once it breaks below 90,000, the third wave of 1-hour declines will officially unfold. Whether it can hold above this crucial support at 90,000 directly determines whether the 4-hour decline can be concluded.

**15-minute timeframe: don’t over-interpret the details**

Zooming into the 15-minute cycle, short-term fluctuations don’t need to be overanalyzed.