These days, discussions on Twitter are chaotic, but after careful sorting, there are actually only a few logical lines.

Let's start with the most outrageous claims: DOGE will surge to $10 per coin, SOL will reach $1000, and BNB will instead fall to $100. It sounds absurd, but the underlying reasoning chain is actually centered around Musk stirring up trouble.

**The most clear logic is for SOL**

Elon Musk is transforming X into a "cryptocurrency wallet" that can connect multiple blockchains. Currently, the hottest rumor is that the SOL chain will soon be integrated. This news has made the SOL community collectively excited—since the platform with the greatest influence is about to connect to the SOL ecosystem, isn't it just a matter of time before SOL skyrockets from its current price to $1000?

This logic leads to a second inference: SOL and BNB are inherently competitors. Plus, considering CZ's previous suppression of SOL, the SOL community's believers are even more convinced—that as SOL takes off, BNB will inevitably decline. In their extreme predictions, BNB might even fall back to $100.

**The DOGE story is Elon Musk's story**

If X really becomes a centralized exchange (CEX), then DOGE would naturally be the biggest beneficiary. DOGE at $10 sounds like it would require a market cap in the trillions? But think about it—Elon Musk's personal wealth exceeds a trillion, and he is openly known as the "DOGE godfather." Since Musk is involved in creating a CEX, isn't the benefit for DOGE even more direct?

**What will happen to BNB?**

This is where it gets interesting. According to the above logic, SOL is positioned as an American chain, backed by Wall Street capital, and Musk is American, so SOL will crush BNB.

Supporters of BNB counter: First, understand this—BNB is the parent, and BNB is still a shareholder of X.

**Looking at the real situation calmly**

Suppose Musk really turns X into a CEX, but there's a logical problem that is often overlooked:

1. Just look at the effectiveness of Tencent's financial products. Are traditional finance platforms like Tonghuashun, Eastmoney, and Xueqiu out of business because of Tencent? No. If X becomes a CEX, at most it would be like Coinbase—each occupying its own market, not enough to overturn anything.

2. Who are BNB's core user groups? Chinese users, especially Chinese investors. This is a very rarely discussed reality—does X support Chinese IPs? No, X simply can't be used in China. Why would X try to compete with BNB?

3. Moreover, if Musk wants to turn X into a CEX, the biggest resistance isn't BNB but the US banking system. When Jack Ma tried to develop Alipay, what kind of suppression did he face? US financial regulation is far stricter than China's.

So, the most practical conclusion is: DOGE and SOL might indeed benefit from Musk's antics, but BNB's fate is far from so simple. The competition isn't as absolute as online discussions suggest; ecosystems are ecosystems, users are users, and the landscape isn't so easily rewritten.