Cryptocurrency market trends have been stagnant for so long, which often indicates a major move is just around the corner. Consolidation essentially reflects a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with neither side able to dominate. Ultimately, the decisive factors are the breakout direction, trading volume, the current cycle stage, and news catalysts. Based on the current pace, there should be a rebound opportunity for altcoins by the end of the year.

How to judge the direction of this market movement? The key lies in three aspects. First is the cycle position—consolidation in a bull market is usually just a pause in the middle, with a higher probability of an upward breakout; conversely, in a bear market, consolidation often occurs during a decline and can easily break downward again. Second is the volume support, which is especially important. Near the end of a consolidation, if trading volume is squeezed to the limit and then suddenly surges, coupled with a successful breakout above resistance and stabilization, the chances of a subsequent rally are high; if volume drops and breaks support levels, it’s likely a sign of a big decline. Third, news and capital momentum determine the strength of this move. Policy favorable news, institutional entry, and on-chain technological upgrades can make the upward breakout more vigorous; on the other hand, negative news accelerates downward breaks.

In practical trading, focus on a few details. First, observe the volume-price relationship—look for a breakout on high volume after a period of extremely low volume, as this is a more reliable signal. Second, confirm key price levels—whether it’s the 200-day moving average or previous highs and lows, a genuine breakout must hold above these levels; otherwise, it’s a false breakout. Third, check on-chain data, such as the activity of large addresses, ETF capital inflows and outflows, and changes in exchange holdings. These can help you understand what the main players are trying to do. Coins like XRP, SOL, and DOGE are recently on the watchlist, and the analysis follows this framework.