These past few years, I've seen many people around me suffer big losses in the crypto world, and I want to share some honest thoughts with everyone.

I still remember the early days of the crypto scene, when burying a coin and holding it for a few years was normal to see returns of dozens or even hundreds of times. Back then, it was popular to say: "Hold good spot assets, time will give you the answer." The conclusion was simple and straightforward—if you don’t sell, you will eventually make money.

But now? That logic has long since become invalid. I have a buddy who has been holding onto a few small coins since 2023, and this year his account has shrunk by 90%. To break even? He needs those coins to increase tenfold. Honestly, the probability of that happening is shockingly low.

**Market Rules Have Been Rewritten**

The crypto market has matured, and the nature of players has completely changed. Large institutions are now the main force, and their trading strategies are on a completely different level from retail investors. After Bitcoin’s fourth halving, what should happen according to historical patterns? The market’s response often comes as a surprise.

More realistically, the global regulatory framework is continuously improving. The US and Europe are taking action, which naturally reduces market volatility. Want to see the scene of hundreds of coins doubling again? That’s pretty unlikely now. There are hundreds of coins on exchanges, and a 1-3x increase is considered a good performance.

**Why Holding Spot Assets Passively Is Becoming Less Effective**

The reason old strategies worked was because the entire market was like a wasteland, full of opportunities. Now, it’s different—institutions are entering, liquidity is abundant, and information transparency has increased. These changes have eroded the advantage of simply buying and sleeping. The market has already priced in a lot, and holding for a long time makes it hard to earn excess returns.

Those who are truly doing well are often those who understand swing trading and can adjust their positions according to market rhythm. This doesn’t mean frequent trading, but having a sense of timing—taking profits at high points, adding positions at lows, and knowing when to exit in the middle.