This wave of market behavior, I believe many people have fallen into the trap. Yesterday, many long positions were cut too early, watching the rally unfold before their eyes, only to chase shorts and get slapped in the face. Repeatedly, they lost money through stop-losses. Instead of continuing to be toyed with by the market, it's better to see through what the market is really playing at.

Today, I took a short position, not out of anger, but based on three perspectives—this rebound simply cannot hold up.

First, let's analyze how those who fell into traps yesterday lost money. When the market rises, some rush to take profits at short-term gains, while others are deceived by the illusion of a breakout. In the end, they are ruthlessly stopped out in the sideways movement. To put it plainly, they didn't realize that the bullish momentum was already weakening, nor did they fully understand the risks of shorting.

**So how to tell if the rally is genuinely weak or just a short-term shrinkage?** There are three signals more reliable than just looking at candlestick charts:

**1. Volume divergence is very obvious.** Over the past three days, every time major cryptocurrencies surged, trading volume actually shrank. Especially when approaching previous resistance levels, the buying power was clearly insufficient, a typical "rising price with decreasing volume" phenomenon. This indicates that no one wants to chase the high anymore, the current bulls can't sustain the subsequent market, and bears are ready to strike back at any moment.

**2. Funding rates are weakening.** On perpetual contracts, the funding rate has been falling recently, even turning negative at times. What does this mean? The bullish sentiment is cooling rapidly, everyone is holding their positions cautiously rather than rushing to buy. This kind of shift often signals a trend reversal.