Trump escalates war against the Federal Reserve: from verbal criticism to criminal investigation

Trump’s dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve has escalated from rhetoric to the judicial level. After accusing Fed Chair Powell of “stifling every economic rebound,” the Trump administration swiftly took action by launching a criminal investigation into Powell. Behind this conflict lies an unprecedented challenge to the Fed’s independence, which has also severely shaken market confidence.

The Full Context of the Escalating Conflict

This is not the first time Trump has clashed with the Fed, but this confrontation is markedly different in approach. According to the latest reports, U.S. federal prosecutors have launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell, focusing on the renovation project at the Fed’s Washington headquarters.

On the surface, it appears to be an issue related to construction, but in reality, it is a political pressure tactic against Fed policies. Insiders reveal that the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Randal Quarles, is the main driver behind this move. Interestingly, some of Trump’s allies are concerned that legal actions against Powell could disrupt the bond markets.

Trump’s Multi-Pronged Pressure

In addition to the judicial investigation, the Trump administration is also opposing at the monetary policy level:

• Initiating a purchase program for mortgage-backed securities (MBS), aiming to roughly match the Fed’s balance sheet reduction pace, effectively opposing the Fed’s policy direction
• U.S. Treasury Secretary explicitly stated that this plan is meant to “counteract the Fed’s balance sheet reduction”
• Continually criticizing Powell in public, accusing him of policies that drag down the economy

The Fed’s Counterattack and Market Response

Powell has not backed down. He issued a statement clearly stating that the Fed assesses interest rates based on data and economic conditions, not on the President’s preferences. He also warned that investigations targeting the Fed threaten its independence.

This conflict has already begun to impact the markets. Analysts note that Trump’s attacks on the Fed have shaken investor confidence. Traditional safe-haven assets are performing strongly—gold and the Swiss franc lead the gains. This is similar to the market reaction in August 2025 when Trump criticized Fed Governor Cook, during which gold prices also surged.

For the cryptocurrency market, such policy uncertainty is especially sensitive. The threat to Fed independence implies that monetary policy could face more political interference, directly affecting liquidity and market expectations.

Key Question: Can Independence Be Maintained?

The core of this confrontation revolves around the Fed’s independence. From verbal criticism to judicial investigations, Trump’s pressure tactics are escalating. Powell’s term will end in May, and it remains unclear whether he will step down as usual, giving Trump further leverage.

However, the independence of the Fed is crucial for financial market stability. If central bank policies become overly politicized, market confidence could be shaken far beyond expectations. This is why even some of Trump’s allies are concerned about this move.

Summary

The conflict between Trump and the Fed has escalated from policy disagreements to institutional challenges. From accusing Powell of “stifling economic rebounds” to launching criminal investigations and MBS purchase plans, this is a high-stakes showdown over monetary policy independence. The market has responded with a rally in safe-haven assets, and the cryptocurrency market remains highly sensitive to this uncertainty. The key going forward is whether the Fed can maintain its independence under political pressure and how Powell’s potential departure might influence policy direction.