BTC liquidation cliff: $2.334 billion downside risk vs. $1.329 billion upside risk

According to the latest news, if BTC falls below $88,873, the cumulative long liquidation strength on mainstream exchanges will reach $2.334 billion; conversely, if it breaks above $97,497, the short liquidation strength will be $1.329 billion. Currently, BTC is trading around $93,617.74, between these two key levels. This data reveals an interesting market phenomenon: downside liquidation pressure is significantly greater than upside liquidation pressure.

Market Structure Behind the Liquidation Data

Asymmetric Liquidation Distribution

According to Coinglass data, there is a clear imbalance in liquidation strength on both sides:

What does this asymmetry indicate? It suggests that leverage among long positions is significantly higher than among shorts. In other words, traders holding long positions are using higher leverage, and their stop-loss points are more densely clustered. This is a typical “bulls dominate but with greater risk” scenario.

Price Volatility Risk Space

With BTC at around $93,617.74, the downside trigger point is $4,744 away (about 5.1% drop), and the upside trigger point is $3,880 away (about 4.1% increase). This means:

• Downside risk requires a larger decline to trigger
• Upside breakthroughs are more likely to trigger chain liquidations
• The market’s “resistance” to falling is stronger than its “sensitivity” to rising

Market Context and Leverage Situation

Based on recent data, BTC has increased by 1.96% in the past 24 hours and 1.92% over the past 7 days, indicating a mild upward trend. However, from the overall liquidation data, the past 24 hours have seen $215 million in futures liquidations, with BTC accounting for $87.1967 million.

This indicates that there are indeed large leveraged positions in the market. The dominance of longs with high leverage means that any downward movement could trigger chain liquidations, which in turn could further intensify the downward pressure.

What Does This Data Tell Us

From the distribution of liquidation strength, the current market risk characteristics are:

• Downside risk is overestimated. $2.334 billion in long liquidation strength may seem large, but it requires a decline of over 5% to trigger
• Upside risk is underestimated. Only about 4% increase needed to trigger $1.329 billion in short liquidations, potentially creating a “self-reinforcing upward” scenario
• The overall market is long-biased but with concentrated risk

My personal view is that this asymmetric liquidation distribution often signals that volatility may be imminent. When the market structure is so unbalanced, a breakout in one direction is usually needed to restore equilibrium.

Summary

BTC is currently between the liquidation levels of $88,873 and $97,497, with downside liquidation pressure ($2.334 billion) significantly higher than upside liquidation pressure ($1.329 billion). This reflects a market with highly leveraged longs. While a decline of about 5% is needed to trigger downside liquidations, once triggered, it could cause a chain reaction. Conversely, upside liquidations, though smaller in strength, are more easily triggered. The market is in a state of asymmetric risk; paying attention to these two key price levels will be very helpful in understanding subsequent volatility.