ETH liquidation risk asymmetry: Long positions face $1.527 billion pressure, current price is in a sensitive zone

Based on the latest data, Ethereum (ETH) is currently in a critical liquidation risk zone. According to Coinglass data, if ETH falls below $3,032, the cumulative long liquidation strength on major exchanges will reach $1.527 billion; conversely, if it breaks above $3,324, the short liquidation strength will be only $753 million. Currently, ETH is trading around $3,190.90, between these two thresholds. What does this position imply?

Asymmetry of Liquidation Risks

The data reveals a clear characteristic: the risk scale for longs is more than twice that of shorts. This indicates that the market currently has more accumulated long positions, while short positions are relatively fewer. From an exchange perspective, longs are at greater risk of being liquidated.

The Implication of the Current Price

ETH at around $3,190 is in a relatively delicate position. A drop of $158 would hit the long liquidation line, while an increase of $134 is needed to trigger short liquidations. This asymmetry means the downside space is relatively limited (comparatively), but the upside is also constrained by potential short liquidations.

Recent Market Context

From the data, ETH has risen 2.40% in the past 24 hours, showing some upward momentum. However, over the past 7 days, it has decreased by 0.85%, indicating this rally is a rebound within a generally weak trend. In this context, the risk faced by longs accumulating positions at relatively high levels warrants close attention.

What Market Participants Should Focus On

Long holders need to closely monitor the $3,032 level. A break below this could trigger $1.527 billion in long liquidations, potentially causing a chain reaction that further depresses the price. This is a typical “liquidation cascade” risk. In contrast, the short liquidation threshold at $3,324 is farther away, making the trigger risk comparatively lower.

Looking at volume, the 24-hour trading volume is $1.996 billion, indicating moderate market activity. However, given the high liquidation strength, any sharp volatility in either direction could trigger large-scale liquidations.

Summary

ETH is currently in an asymmetric risk state between longs and shorts, with significantly greater pressure on longs. This structural feature implies that downward risk is more “systemic”—once long liquidations are triggered, they could reinforce a downward spiral. In the short term, $3,032 is the most critical support level and a key risk threshold for market participants. Although recent upward momentum exists, the potential for upside is limited under this liquidation structure.