2026-01-13 15:25:11

Will tonight's US inflation data be the turning point for the crypto market?

At 21:30 Beijing time, the December US CPI data will be officially released. This set of numbers may seem ordinary, but it actually concerns the Federal Reserve's future pace of rate cuts and directly determines the market trend in the coming months. For holders, this moment is critical—like a "wind vane" decision.

The two most关注 data points

First is the unadjusted core CPI year-over-year, with an expected value of 3.80%. This indicator excludes short-term fluctuations in energy and food, providing a more accurate reflection of the fundamental drivers of price increases—the true stickiness of inflation. Second is the overall CPI month-over-month, with an expected 0.30%, directly affecting ordinary people's real feelings about the "grocery basket" and "gas tank."

Two directions, two market stories

What happens if the data exceeds expectations? That would mean inflation remains stubborn, and the Federal Reserve will be more cautious. Under the expectation that the "rate cut cycle may be delayed," the US dollar will be supported and strengthen. Conversely, risk assets like gold and cryptocurrencies may come under pressure. BTC and ETH might test short-term support levels and are likely to face a wave of adjustment.

On the other hand, if the data falls below expectations? It will fully confirm signals of cooling inflation, and market expectations for "faster rate cuts" will heat up. Investors will reassess the value of risk assets, and cryptocurrencies are expected to rise with the trend, possibly triggering a significant rebound.

How to stay rational amid volatility

At the moment of data release, market fluctuations are often the most intense. This is when impulsiveness is most likely. The recommended approach is: let emotions fly for a while, wait until the initial shock subsides, and the market direction becomes clearer before choosing to intervene. Keep a close eye on BTC and ETH, as they usually lead the market sentiment shift.

Now, it's time to ask: what kind of surprises do you think tonight's data will bring—or will it once again disrupt the market rhythm?

BTC1,41%

ETH-0,57%

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MelonField

· 3h ago

Coming back to this again? Every time you say it's a turning point, but it turns out to be just repeated fluctuations. Betting that CPI below expectations can lead to a rebound, but this data seems prone to surprises. Waiting to be hammered at 21:30, everyone get ready to cut losses haha. Promised not to watch the market, but sure enough, I'll be glued to it until midnight again. Inflation's stickiness is so strong that don't expect an interest rate cut cycle; the Federal Reserve isn't that kind.

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DegenTherapist

· 7h ago

It's the same old story, I'm already tired of hearing it. What really determines the market is how the Federal Reserve will play, CPI is just an excuse. --- Wait, will it really go as expected? I bet five bucks it will definitely beat expectations again. --- Sounds nice, but it's all luck. I just want to know how much BTC will drop at the moment of announcement. --- Stay rational? Ha, you're joking with the crypto community. --- Whatever, I've already gone all in anyway, do whatever you want. --- If there's another black swan event this time, it would be the end. --- Every time they say "wait until the market is clear before entering," but they end up missing all the rebounds.

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WalletWhisperer

· 01-13 15:55

nah the real tell isn't the headline number... it's the wallet clustering patterns 15 mins after release. whales already positioned tbh

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GasOptimizer

· 01-13 15:54

3.80% vs actual, a difference of just 0.05 can be arbitraged, this is tonight's game rule Wait for the first wave of sell-off to finish before buying the dip, otherwise you're just paying gas fees Historical data shows that when the deviation of such expected data exceeds 0.15%, on-chain activity will have a noticeable jump, as previously analyzed To be honest, compared to the data itself, I care more about how the fee moves; during low volatility periods, gas fees are actually hidden gains

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PhantomMiner

· 01-13 15:52

It's that time again, it feels like every CPI report can turn the market upside down. Bet on below expectations, or else all my coins will be for nothing. I heard tonight will either be a surge or a plunge; anyway, I don't dare to look at the charts. I'll stay tuned at 21:30. Whatever happens, let's just say it drops first. Why do US data always have to mess with us? I'm really exhausted. The scariest thing isn't the decline itself, but the strange sideways movement after the data is released. Come on, cut interest rates already, so the crypto market can get some good news sooner. Honestly, the only thing I care about is whether BTC will hit a new high again; everything else is just clouds. Inflation's stickiness is really annoying. When will we finally get a breather? This year feels more exciting than a roller coaster.

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MEVHunterNoLoss

· 01-13 15:45

Here we go again with the mindset—when CPI is below expectations, it rebounds; when it's above expectations, it crashes. I just want to know if there will be another surprise data point to slap everyone's face.

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OnChainDetective

· 01-13 15:44

nah honestly cpi data is just the official cover story... transaction patterns on major exchange wallets been screaming the real narrative for days. statistical anomaly detected, if u know where to look

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LiquidationWatcher

· 01-13 15:43

nah been there lost that, cpi gonna rug us either way fr 💀

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