#美国消费者物价指数发布在即 U.S. December CPI data will be released tonight at 21:30 Beijing time. This report will directly influence the direction of the capital markets in the coming months.

**Two key figures the market is focusing on**

Traders are paying close attention to two indicators: the unadjusted core CPI year-over-year expectation of 3.80% (excluding energy and food, which best reflect true inflation pressure), and the overall CPI month-over-month expectation of 0.30% (related to consumers' shopping experience).

**Two possible market reactions**

If the actual data exceeds expectations—indicating easing inflation pressure—this signal will immediately transmit to risk assets. Expectations of a faster Fed rate cut will be priced in, the dollar will come under pressure, and risk assets like $BTC and $ETH tend to strengthen accordingly. The crypto market may rally further, leading to a rebound.

Conversely, if the data comes in higher than expected, it suggests inflation remains sticky. This will reinforce the Fed's "wait-and-see" stance, causing a short-term rebound in the dollar, while high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies may face profit-taking. BTC and ETH could retest recent support levels.

**Practical advice**

The first few minutes after the data release are the most volatile, and attempting to chase the market during this time carries high risk. A wiser approach is to wait until the initial market sentiment has settled and the trend becomes clearer before following the trend. Keep an eye on the immediate performance of BTC and ETH—they are usually the leaders of other crypto assets.

This tonight's report will set the tone for the market outlook. What do you think—will the data surpass expectations or fall short? Share your thoughts in the comments.