#密码资产动态追踪 Rate cut dreams shattered, the Federal Reserve is determined.

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The bulls betting on a rate cut in March are now in a bit of an awkward position. The latest trading data reflects a reality — the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged has surged to around 75%, completely reversing earlier expectations of early easing. Wall Street has finally realized that "higher for longer" is not a threat but a fact. The market is now pushing back the expectation of the first rate cut to May or June.

Where is the problem? The Fed's stance is very firm. Although inflation has eased somewhat, it has not yet reached the target, and economic data remains resilient. What reason do they have to rush into a rate cut?

Tonight's CPI data is the critical line. Hot data will completely extinguish the hope of a rate cut; cold data will give the market a chance to breathe. Ultimately, until the Fed signals a truly dovish stance, high interest rates remain like the Damocles sword hanging overhead. Every trading move is dictated by the position of this sword. Be well prepared.