December CPI data arrives as expected, but the market reaction is surprisingly calm.

In simple terms, this set of data is well within expectations, and investors have already run through all possible scenarios. The information has been digested long ago, and funds that want to speculate have already laid out their positions in advance. For the crypto world, data within expectations actually means—no black swan events, and therefore no explosive market movements. Instead, it might fall into a range-bound oscillation, where the risk-reward ratio of chasing gains or cutting losses is not worthwhile.

But here’s a warning. "Meeting expectations" seems like good news, but it actually hides underlying concerns. The positive effect of rate cuts has been repeatedly priced in. If the Federal Reserve does not introduce new stimulus policies later, crypto prices are likely to be influenced by market sentiment and short-term liquidity. The short-term trend depends on how US stocks perform; the real game often begins after the US stock market opens at 22:30—whether funds will chase equity assets or switch to other sectors, these choices will determine the market direction in the next few hours.

Rather than jumping in at the moment of data release, it’s better to prepare in advance, keep your positions within a comfortable range, and patiently wait for clear signals from the US stock market before taking action. Ultimately, the "second pricing" in the crypto market often happens on the US stock side.