The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy is closely linked to the release of dollar liquidity. When rate cut expectations intensify, US Treasury yields decline accordingly, directly lowering the discount rate for risk assets—including Bitcoin. Theoretically, this is the "liquidity engine" activation moment that the crypto market has been anticipating.

However, the current reality is somewhat awkward. According to market pricing, there is a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January, and even by March, the expectation of a 25 basis point cut has only about a 25% support level. This means that in the short term, the "liquidity pump" has not yet started, and the market lacks a trigger that can quickly boost the trend.

The turning point lies in a dramatic reversal of expectations. If CPI data unexpectedly declines, the expectation of a rate cut will suddenly heat up, and Bitcoin will be the first to digest this positive news—this is the basic logic of market pricing. In other words, the current market lacks a catalyst, but once macroeconomic data changes, market sentiment will quickly reverse, and the wave of liquidity will follow.