The latest data has been released, and traders' expectations have experienced a major reversal. On January 13, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the core consumer price index rose slightly less than previously expected, which has invigorated market sentiment. Traders are now betting that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates as early as April, rather than waiting until May.

How do the specific numbers look? According to the latest forecast data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in April is about 42%, up from 38% before the data was released, an increase of 4 percentage points. However, the market still considers the probability of a rate cut in June to be higher, but this unexpected moderation in CPI has indeed given more room for imagination around the April timeline. In simple terms, as inflation data loosens, the expectation of rate cuts adjusts accordingly, which has a significant impact on asset prices.