Market sentiment is often the key to judging whether a breakout is genuine. The sentiment transmission pattern during the bull-to-bear transition is completely different from the main upward wave of a bull market. This distinction is crucial for understanding XMR's current market situation.

Looking back, XRP and SOL broke through previous highs during the main upward wave of the bull market, but both turned out to be false breakouts. What was the main reason? After excessive enthusiasm, the follow-up capital couldn't keep up. In contrast, ZEC broke through at the end of the bull market when the sentiment premium in the privacy sector was quite evident, so it was different. XMR's current situation is rather awkward—overall market sentiment is suppressing it.

Looking at the current chart makes it clear. BTC and ETH are oscillating downward; everyone's mindset is risk-averse, and altcoins have long been abandoned. Although XMR has broken to a new high and attracted some attention, social media discussion volume is average, and futures funding rates are normal, far from the nationwide frenzy when BTC broke previous highs. This indicates that market sentiment hasn't truly followed through.

The delay in sentiment transmission determines that XMR finds it difficult to form a sustained main upward wave. The head pattern around $670 is essentially a sign of sentiment exhaustion. If the market sentiment doesn't improve significantly afterward, the second head is unlikely to break new highs, and there’s even a risk of accelerated correction due to emotional selling. Therefore, the current strategy is to wait and see, follow the sentiment cycle, and avoid blindly bottom-fishing during lows.