Tonight's CPI data may reveal some unexpected upward signals. Don't rush to conclusions; there are quite a few "technical noises" at play — the aftermath of the government shutdown has not fully dissipated yet.

The data itself is somewhat awkward. Comparing December's price data with August's naturally introduces an upward bias. Plus, November's figures might have been artificially lowered due to early holiday promotions. In simple terms, until March 2026, the market will find it difficult to see a truly "clean" inflation report. Under these circumstances, judging inflation trends is like looking through a layer of fog.

Inflation stickiness is becoming more apparent. Although there's still a considerable distance from the Federal Reserve's 2% target, this stubborn price pressure is changing the game — the probability of a rate cut by the Fed in January is almost zero. Currently, the market bets that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in January with a 95% probability.

Speaking of the labor market, it's not as weak as imagined. While the increase in employment in November was only 50,000, indicating some slowdown, the unemployment rate has fallen back to 4.4%, suggesting the job market hasn't reached a "collapse" point. Plus, given the current political environment, the Fed will be more cautious.

However, for the stock market, as long as food and housing prices don't make big moves, the modest rise in CPI may not cause too much turbulence. The market's bullish sentiment remains, and a major shift in the short term is unlikely.