Market fluctuations in the crypto world are never just simple ups and downs; there are those secretly positioning themselves, while others are anxiously reacting on the surface.

Today, looking at ETH's 4-hour K-line, my first impression is—this trend looks like it's been stuck by something. In the morning, it dipped from 3144 down to 3120, then rebounded near 3130 at noon. The entire BOLL Bollinger Band's middle line seems fixed, forcefully trapping the price within a narrow range of 3100-3150. On the surface, it appears calm, but outside the chart, the news is already surging with hidden currents waiting to strike.

The most noteworthy is the movement of institutions—one major mining company today invested a total of $479 million, depositing 154,000 ETH into staking contracts. Now, this institution's account holds 1.34 million ETH, roughly 1% of the circulating supply. This isn't the retail investor's typical chasing highs and selling lows; the whale's staking effectively pulls a large chunk of chips out of the market. Imagine 1.34 million ETH lying idle in hand; the selling pressure from circulating supply naturally diminishes. So why hasn't the price surged? Because at the same time, another force is suppressing it—the Federal Reserve officials signaled this morning that inflation remains high, and there's no hope for rate cuts in the short term. The dollar's appreciation expectation has taken center stage again. When macro sentiment cools, risk assets are pressed to the ground, and even the strongest institutional support can't withstand this systemic pressure.

Returning to the 4-hour technical chart, the 3100-3150 range remains a key support and resistance zone in the short term. The long-term intentions behind institutional positioning and the short-term impact of Federal Reserve policies are confronting each other here—whoever exits first, loses.