#密码资产动态追踪 Inflation cools down, are rate cut expectations really moving up earlier?

Recently, new data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics just came out, showing that core CPI growth was lower than market estimates. This instantly caused a stir—traders began recalculating when the Federal Reserve might act.

Interestingly, last week the market was generally betting on the first rate cut in June, but the probability of a rate cut in April has already jumped from 38% to 42%. See, as soon as one or two good data points come out, these folks start playing the "front-loading" game.

More worth pondering is that many traders believe the Fed won't wait until Powell's term ends in May to act. In other words, if economic data supports a rate cut, the Fed's decision won't be hostage to the chairman's schedule. Policy will operate independently, and a move as early as April wouldn't be surprising.

The logic chain is clear: inflation recedes → Fed's rate hike pressure diminishes, and they start worrying about economic growth → rate cut timetable moves forward → traders quickly adjust positions, heavily betting on an earlier rate cut.

For long positions, this is a signal. Once the rate cut cycle begins, risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) usually experience a rebound. But don’t get too excited—it's still crucial to watch how subsequent CPI and employment data unfold. Economic data speaks for itself, and market expectations can change at any time.