The risk to the Federal Reserve's independence becomes a new focus: inflation data is fading from the market stage

Goldman Sachs today issued a noteworthy signal: the risk to Federal Reserve independence is rising, and inflation data may shift from being the primary market trigger to a background constraint factor. This view seems macroeconomic but actually points to a deeper market logic shift—political factors are replacing data factors as the new driving force.

The “Downgrade” of Inflation Data and the Rising Risk to Independence

The US December CPI data will be released on the evening of January 13, 2026, which should be the most closely watched economic indicator. However, Goldman Sachs believes that even with this “welcome hard data” out, market focus has already begun shifting to the issue of the Fed’s independence.

What are the specific manifestations?

According to the latest information, this risk has already had actual cases. Trump preemptively leaked unpublished US non-farm employment data on January 10, 2026, nearly a day before the official release. This seemingly “accidental act” actually touches on a sensitive issue: the authority of the Fed as an independent institution and the norms of information dissemination.

Additionally, JPMorgan has overturned its previous forecast of a rate cut by the Fed in 2026, now expecting only a 25 basis point hike in Q3 2027. Major banks including Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and Morgan Stanley have delayed their expectations for rate cuts. This indicates that the market’s expectations framework for Fed policy is being reshaped.

Why is the importance of inflation data decreasing?

What Goldman Sachs’ Investment Advice Means

In this context, Goldman Sachs still leans toward bullish risk assets, but the strategy has shifted—no longer chasing short-term news hotspots, but focusing on sustainable, tradable themes.

This shift is crucial. It indicates:

• Diminished short-term data-driven momentum: Single CPI or employment data no longer directly drives market direction
• Structural factors gaining importance: AI productivity gains, tax reform policies, and long-term capital allocation become more significant drivers
• Increased political uncertainty: The risk to Fed independence implies reduced policy predictability, requiring more cautious positioning

Implications for the Crypto Market

What does this shift mean for digital assets?

According to reports, Goldman Sachs states that multiple factors will accelerate Bitcoin adoption, including increased institutional acceptance and improved compliance infrastructure. But the key is that the relationship between Bitcoin and Fed policy is changing:

• From a “rate cut expectations boosting risk assets” single logic to a more complex macro environment assessment
• The risk to Fed independence itself may become a factor pushing safe-haven assets (including Bitcoin) higher
• Long-term institutional allocation needs may surpass short-term policy fluctuations

Summary

The core implication of rising risks to Fed independence is: the market is shifting from “data-driven” to “greater influence of political factors.” Goldman Sachs recommends going long risk assets but avoiding chasing short-term hotspots, reflecting an investment logic focused on structural opportunities amid increasing uncertainty.

For market participants, the key is not to speculate on the next CPI or employment report, but to understand how political factors influence the Fed’s decision-making framework. In this new environment, while inflation data remains important, it has moved from the spotlight to the background.