#密码资产动态追踪 After the rapid decline in early January, the market finally has a chance to breathe.

Looking back at the trend at that time, BTC was hammered down to a low of 8.96K, but quickly rebounded to around 9.1K. This detail is very important—it indicates that not everyone wants to continue dumping, and the bulls are still defending at some level.

But don’t rush to think the bull market has arrived. From the market performance, this looks more like a typical rhythm: sharp decline → excessive emotional release → technical rebound → oscillation and repeated fluctuations at high levels.

Why do I tend to interpret this as a "continuation of high volatility" rather than a new upward trend? There are three key observations:

**First, the mid-term structure has not been repaired.** BTC has fallen nearly 30% from its high in October last year, and overall since 2026, it still shows negative returns. In this context, a direct V-shaped reversal back is almost unrealistic.

**Second, the deleveraging process is not yet complete.** On January 8, indeed, 128 million dollars of long positions were cleared, but the subsequent rebound was only 2-4%, mostly short covering and technical stop-loss orders, with no signs of new large-scale capital entering.

**Third, the market has entered a bottoming phase.** Many market analysts generally agree—further downside may test the strong support at 60K to 65K, while a rebound to 95K-100K would face significant selling pressure. The repeated tug-of-war in the middle could last for quite some time.

I will continue to monitor a few clues:

**Institutional chip movements.** A large amount of BTC is still in "locked" status, with no signs of long-term holders loosening their grip, which indirectly indicates that the bottom is still slowly forming.

**Macro capital flow.** The flow of funds after tax season, changes in interest rate expectations—these could steer the next phase of the market.

**New market narratives.** The combination of AI and blockchain, new concepts like prediction markets—may not move the market in the short term, but could become variables that quietly ferment by 2026.

The current rebound is essentially just "catching a breath after falling too deep," not a confirmed signal of a bull market.

The next year is likely to be a combination of high volatility and slow bottoming. The biggest test is not whether you can predict the direction accurately, but whether you can hold your bottom line—don't over-allocate, don't use leverage aggressively, and don't let yourself be shaken out in the volatility. Only by surviving to the next cycle will you have the qualification to talk about making money.

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