Recently, I was chatting with a few friends in the crypto circle, and the topic always revolves around one question—when will altcoins start to rise?

One friend started accumulating altcoins last year, and he's still holding nearly half of them in a loss. He scrolls through his phone, full of green-colored coin listings, looking helpless. I reviewed the market data from the past year for him, and the conclusion is quite sobering: throughout the entire cycle, only a few altcoins have hit new highs; most are either stuck in sideways dead zones or quietly declining. Especially during the mid-October correction, many altcoins gave back several months' worth of gains in a single day, with some even losing their principal.

The problem isn't that we're waiting too long; it's that the current market environment simply doesn't allow for an "altcoin season." Looking back at historical periods of widespread altcoin rallies, it was because there was active incremental capital entering the market, and retail investors were willing to participate. But now, the landscape has changed—global liquidity is tightening, U.S. Treasury yields are soaring, and institutions are "pumping out" funds everywhere, making it impossible for the crypto market to escape.

A more realistic issue is that altcoins themselves lack resilience. Any slight disturbance hits them first, and retail investors have long been squeezed painfully. The remaining funds in the market are either tightly held or all concentrated in BTC and ETH. Altcoin gains require a crowd effect among retail investors, but this consensus has already dissipated, and there are fewer bagholders.

Looking at the current market conditions makes it clear—ETH has already hit a new all-time high, yet other altcoins still show no signs of recovery. This contrast most clearly illustrates the core issue.

Here are three practical suggestions for participants at any stage:

**Strategy 1: Focus on mainstream coins.** Allocate 80% of your position to BTC and ETH, as these assets are more resistant to declines and have the strength to rebound even during corrections. Altcoins are different; they might be out of the game altogether.

**Strategy 2: Keep a distance from altcoins.** If you must participate, strictly limit your position to within 5%, and only choose projects with real use cases—such as tokens focused on on-chain ecosystem development—avoiding those that are purely story-driven without actual products.

**Strategy 3: Abandon the "get-out-of-trouble miracle" myth.** The crypto world has entered a new era, and stories of getting rich overnight are becoming rarer. Instead of stubbornly holding onto altcoins in hopes of doubling your money, it’s better to adopt flexible trading strategies—like entering with a small position when BTC revisits key support levels—this approach tends to be more stable.