#密码资产动态追踪 Inflation "stickiness" is coming. Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates again in January?

Tonight's CPI data may send an unexpectedly strong signal to the market. The data disturbance caused by the government shutdown is too significant, and the credibility of this report itself is questionable. Compared to August's price levels, December's data is prone to technical upward bias; November's figures were artificially suppressed due to early promotional seasons. In short, until March 2026, we won't see truly clean inflation data.

How sticky is inflation? That’s the key. If price pressures remain stubborn and the gap to the Fed’s 2% target persists, the likelihood of a rate cut in January diminishes further. The market is now betting that the probability of the Fed holding rates steady has soared to 95%.

But the labor market isn't that fragile. Although new jobs have slowed to 50,000, the unemployment rate has actually fallen back to 4.4% from a higher point, indicating employers are not yet in a rush to lay off workers. Plus, the Fed might become more cautious due to political factors, making a rate cut in January essentially zero.

However, the stock market still seems quite calm. As long as food and housing prices don't surge dramatically, a moderate increase in CPI isn't enough to break the current bullish sentiment. That’s also why, while waiting for the data, the market is keeping an eye on the subsequent pace of asset allocation.