2026-01-13 13:28:56

The importance of betting, rather than gambling on certainty

In the early days of SpaceX and Tesla, how confident was Musk about success? Probably only about 10%.

The key is—he wasn't betting on "definitely winning."
He was betting on "this matter is sufficiently important."

This is the fundamental difference.

Many people ask: Is there a guarantee? Can it really succeed?
True entrepreneurs ask: Even if nine out of ten fail, is this direction still worth pursuing?

The "safe opportunities" in the market have already been crowded out. Those tracks that boast certainty are already overrun. Instead, it’s the ones that seem risky but have unlimited potential that are left for those willing to bet.

A low probability is not scary; what’s scary is choosing the wrong direction.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

18 Likes

Reward
18
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

zkProofInThePudding

· 01-13 13:58

That's right, daring to bet even 10% confidence, the key is to bet on the right direction. Most people get stuck on the idea of "waiting until it's confirmed before acting."

View OriginalReply0

CantAffordPancake

· 01-13 13:55

That's right, but most people don't have the guts to take such bets... Things with a 100% certainty have already been snapped up, leaving only life-and-death situations. Those who dare to play have become the current winners.

View OriginalReply0

LiquidatedAgain

· 01-13 13:54

Once again, I hear this set of arguments... I just want to ask, why is a low-probability scenario considered "daring to gamble," and why is a high-leverage liquidation called "risk control awareness"? In front of the liquidation price, everyone is equal, brother.

View OriginalReply0

TokenomicsTherapist

· 01-13 13:52

Haha, that's why most people are destined to be mediocre... True risk-takers never ask if they are confident, only if it's worth it.

View OriginalReply0

Degentleman

· 01-13 13:34

I believe in Elon Musk's confidence, but truly daring to bet is indeed rare. Most are still searching for that false certainty, only to be squeezed to death in the Red Sea. If the direction is right, even with a low probability, you should go for it.

View OriginalReply0