The outlook for the crypto market in Q1 2026 is somewhat stagnant, with the fundamental reason pointing to one factor—funds flowing into other markets. The key variable behind this is still Trump's policy moves.

Everyone saw how fierce the rise of gold and silver was at the end of last year, with a large influx of capital rushing into those assets. As they began to slightly retrace at the start of this year, Bitcoin showed signs of a rebound, and the market was once optimistic that capital rotation was returning.

But what happened? As Trump took action on geopolitical policies, he directly targeted traditional resource sectors. The market sensed risks of inflation and turmoil, and funds almost immediately turned back to gold and silver, eager to hedge risks. This was a blow to cryptocurrencies—in the eyes of institutional investors, our market is still high-risk, and naturally cannot match gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.

To see a major rally in the crypto market in Q1, at least one of two conditions must be met: first, geopolitical tensions need to occasionally ease, allowing market risk appetite to recover somewhat; second, the crypto market itself needs to generate a sufficiently eye-catching new story—something strong enough to attract funds in the opposite direction.

From the current situation, the probability of a broad rally is low. A more realistic scenario is that certain specific sectors or projects will break out based on their fundamentals and innovative breakthroughs. The entire market is actually waiting for a clear signal—whether it’s easing geopolitical tensions or major progress in technological breakthroughs or application deployment.