#美国贸易赤字状况 Recently, the Wall Street crowd has started speculating on cyclical stocks again. As soon as they hear news of policy shifts and stimulus signals, they become restless. But I see through this pattern; the probability of history repeating itself is quite high—every time this happens, hot money ultimately flows into the crypto market seeking higher yield elasticity.

On-chain signals are already visible. Several whale addresses are quietly increasing their positions in $BTC and $ETH, and inflows of stablecoins are beginning to pick up again. None of this is coincidental. Assets like $XRP, which have policy expectations, are also showing signs of movement. The direction is quite clear; we just need the moment of explosive volume.

From a logical perspective, the combination of rising policy stimulus expectations + easing inflation pressures = a trigger for risk asset rotation. Looking at the S&P 500, it’s oscillating at high levels—basically, large institutions are rotating and cleaning out positions. Once the trend truly takes shape, high-elasticity assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum will be the fastest to absorb liquidity.

However, it must be admitted that in the short term, the crypto market may follow the downward trend rather than rise—while traditional markets are still wobbling. But in the medium term, capital outflow effects will definitely appear. This year might really be a scenario driven by both policy and capital engines running in parallel.

Regarding trading strategy, it’s simple: hold on. Volatility is common; getting shaken out is the real loss. Cycles don’t lie; the data is right there. Patient investors should be able to wait for that opportunity in 2025.