The traditional Bitcoin cycle is outdated: Grayscale targets a peak in 2026

According to Grayscale’s latest analysis, the cyclical patterns that have marked Bitcoin’s evolution for years need to be reconsidered. The financial institution points out that the 4-year cycle, which has been the benchmark for investors and analysts, is no longer a reliable indicator for projecting future market behavior.

This fundamental change in Bitcoin’s dynamics is due to deep structural transformations. The massive incorporation of Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) and Digital Asset Trusts (DATs) has significantly altered how the market operates. These instruments have attracted large-scale institutional capital, modifying the speculative patterns that characterized previous cycles.

One of the clearest pieces of evidence of this change is the absence of an explosive parabolic overshoot in the current bull market. Historically, Bitcoin experienced peaks of unchecked speculation followed by severe corrections. However, with a more diverse and institutionalized investor base, these extreme movements have moderated, indicating a maturation of the market.

Grayscale projects that Bitcoin will set a new all-time high during 2026, a timeline that moves away from the traditional 4-year schedule. This prediction is based on a macroeconomic environment that appears favorable in the medium term, combined with increased institutionalization of the sector.

The analysis suggests that market participants should abandon old cyclical schemes and adapt to a new reality where Bitcoin’s evolution responds to more sophisticated and less predictable factors under simplistic models.