2026-01-13 07:41:39

#2026年比特币价格展望 Central bank policy changes stir the market, and capital flows show clear divergence

These days, the financial world is buzzing. Traditional capital markets are cautious, but Bitcoin-related assets are celebrating in the opposite direction—what does this indicate? Investors' confidence is shifting back toward non-sovereign assets.

Two of the most straightforward cases are worth noting:

MicroStrategy has made a significant move. They spent $1.25 billion to continue their bottom-fishing, now holding over 200,000 BTC. This company has long tied itself to Bitcoin and is the most aggressive Bitcoin bull among publicly listed companies. Its stock price has also soared accordingly—in a sense, this is an approach to participate in Bitcoin's upward cycle through stock market leverage.

Metaplanet from Japan employs a similar strategy but on a smaller scale, becoming a new favorite among retail investors. This year, its stock price has already increased by 46%, with holdings of over 35,000 BTC. Why is it more popular? Its volatility is greater, and the potential for profit is larger.

The underlying logic is quite straightforward: when expectations for traditional financial centers begin to waver, capital will inevitably seek alternatives. As a non-sovereign asset, Bitcoin becomes especially valuable at this moment. Investors buying such stocks are essentially betting that Bitcoin will continue to strengthen—amplified through the leverage of the listed company.

Peripheral signals are also echoing all of this. The US dollar is weakening, gold and silver are rising together, all pointing in the same direction—assets are undergoing a re-pricing process. In this broader context, who do you favor more? The proven investment logic of MSTR, or the hope that emerging players like Metaplanet can sustain their momentum? The answer may vary from person to person.

BTC-0,62%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

20 Likes

Reward
20
9
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

Layer2Arbitrageur

· 5h ago

honestly the basis point spread between mstr and metaplanet is just inefficient arbitrage waiting to get rekt... actually if you just run the numbers on realized volatility over the past 180 days there's like 340bps left on the table lol. ngmi if you're not flash loaning this delta neutral position smh

Reply0

SnapshotLaborer

· 01-15 03:24

MSTR's move was really aggressive, but I still prefer the little妖精 over in Japan. Only with big fluctuations can there be gains.

View OriginalReply0

CodeAuditQueen

· 01-14 00:57

I've seen the MSTR logic many times before, just like reentrancy attacks in smart contracts — it seems perfect but actually hides pitfalls. The high volatility of Metaplanet is a warning sign; high returns are usually followed by high risks. Isn't this just an overflow caused by excessive gas optimization?

View OriginalReply0

ParanoiaKing

· 01-13 08:11

Retail investors are still debating between MSTR and Metaplanet. I've already gone all in. It's not following the trend; I've seen through it.

View OriginalReply0

ZenMiner

· 01-13 08:11

Retail investors are still debating MSTR vs Metaplanet. I've already gone all in haha. Being naive and having lots of money, this wave of MSTR is indeed stable, but the volatility of Metaplanet... Hey, just based on this 46% increase, I can tell the Japanese are playing cleverly. When the central bank policy changes, funds move away from sovereign assets. That logic makes sense. The 1.25 billion dollar bottom-fishing move by MSTR shows that big capital is also fleeing. Don’t overthink it. When the dollar weakens, gold soars, and BTC will inevitably take off. Whatever you buy, you can make money. Small-cap projects like Metaplanet have high volatility and risk, but the potential returns are truly outrageous. Leverage amplifies gains. Basically, it’s a bet that BTC will keep rising. Dare to gamble? In traditional finance, bottom-fishing in BTC shows that the trend is already set. Retail investors should follow listed companies and enjoy some soup; lying back and winning is the most comfortable. Looking at this trend in 2026, the non-sovereign asset rally is still a long way off.

View OriginalReply0

RumbleValidator

· 01-13 08:09

MSTR's 200,000 BTC are indeed stable, but I'm more concerned about network validation efficiency—these assets will ultimately need to return to on-chain consensus. The 46% increase in Metaplanet looks great, but once liquidity is under pressure, it's game over.

View OriginalReply0

GasFeeCrybaby

· 01-13 08:01

Why do retail investors always prefer to chase new listings? They don't want stable returns from MSTR; they insist on gambling with those volatility kings.

View OriginalReply0

DeFiDoctor

· 01-13 08:00

The 46% increase in Metaplanet looks sexy, but this is a typical case of "leverage amplification syndrome"—clinically characterized by extreme volatility and risk premium overextension. It is recommended to regularly review the portfolio structure. MSTR is supported by a fundamental holding of at least 200,000 BTC. What about this Japanese player? Once market sentiment reverses, smaller caps are more prone to collapse.

View OriginalReply0

MonkeySeeMonkeyDo

· 01-13 07:50

Really? MSTR has bought so much, is the Federal Reserve trying to push everyone into Bitcoin? Haha Retail investors are all playing Metaplanet for high multipliers, but I still think there's something suspicious about this. Whenever the central bank makes a move, funds run out. Honestly, no one trusts the traditional methods anymore. 1.25 billion to buy the dip... This guy is really all in, he's got guts. The surge in Metaplanet is truly outrageous, but after the rise? It has to pull back eventually.

View OriginalReply0