When street protests escalate from demands for reform to calls for regime collapse, the political math changes overnight.

Elites who might tolerate dissent for better governance suddenly find common ground—self-preservation. They circle the wagons.

But here's where it gets complicated: external pressure—whether sanctions, military posturing, or foreign intervention rhetoric—tends to harden domestic resistance. What could've been an internal reckoning becomes a nationalistic rallying point instead.

For markets, this matters. Geopolitical instability in key regions doesn't just affect traditional assets. It reshapes capital flows, risk premiums, and investor appetite across all asset classes. When political tensions compound with security threats, volatility spikes.