Recently, there has been an interesting phenomenon—the fundamentals and the trend of ETH seem to be at odds.

Let's first look at on-chain movements. According to data, over 2.17 million ETH are queued to be staked on the Ethereum network. What does this imply? Large institutions are quietly building positions, and this portion of locked ETH won't be sold off in the short term. Logically, this should be a major positive signal, but why hasn't the price surged immediately? Essentially, market participants haven't fully reacted to this signal yet. Similar staking positives often take some time to be fully reflected in the price and don't result in an instant spike.

Turning to technical analysis, the situation is a bit more complex. ETH experienced a rebound on the 4-hour chart, but it got stuck at the key resistance zone of 3120-3150 and couldn't break through effectively. More notably, the MACD indicator still shows a relatively weak pattern, with no clear signs of reversal. This indicates that the technical upward momentum is not yet strong enough.

In summary, large holders are accumulating in the dark, while retail investors remain on the sidelines. The coordination between news and technical signals is not yet tight enough. The key going forward is whether ETH can find support at this resistance zone and whether the large staking expectations can eventually translate into a definitive upward move in price. If ETH can hold above 3150, the probability of a breakout will significantly increase.