What is the probability of Bitcoin surging? The latest data from multi-chain prediction markets reveals the answer

2026-01-13 04:12:10

Abstract generation in progress

【Blockchain Rhythm】Recently, there have been many voices predicting Bitcoin’s January trend in the market. Based on current data, the market’s confidence in Bitcoin breaking through $100,000 still needs some effort—the probability of breaking this integer barrier is stuck at 27%.

But the really interesting part is here: if it rises to $95,000? The probability jumps to 61%, close to 7 out of 10. In other words, most predictors believe Bitcoin is more likely to stay within this range.

Looking further down also provides some reference. The probability of dropping to $85,000 is 33%, and the chance of falling further to $80,000 drops to 13%. From a 27% to 13% probability gradient, the market seems to be more restrained in its expectations of a significant decline.

This set of data reflects that—market participants generally have a positive outlook on the short-term trend, but there are differing expectations regarding the upside potential.

BTC3,14%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

12 Likes

Reward
12
5
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

FlashLoanPhantom

· 01-13 04:42

95,000 is only 61%? Then $100,000 really is just a dream, haha

View OriginalReply0

OptionWhisperer

· 01-13 04:42

The 95,000 mark is really stuck, it feels like everyone is queuing here.

View OriginalReply0

MEVHunter

· 01-13 04:39

27% for 100k? that's where the real arbitrage spreads open up. 9.5k clustering at 61% screams mempool manipulation—too clean, too predictable. watch the toxic flow.

Reply0

ExpectationFarmer

· 01-13 04:39

27% to reach 100,000, 61% stuck at 95,000. What does this data indicate... Everyone wants to gamble but doesn't dare to be too aggressive.

View OriginalReply0

RektDetective

· 01-13 04:17

95,000 only 61%? This breakout confidence is really disappointing; it seems like everyone is betting on volatility.

View OriginalReply0