As the cryptocurrency market enters the new year, it continues to seek direction. Experienced market analyst Ran Neuner stated that recent signals are more constructive compared to previous weeks, but optimism still needs to be tested. While technical indicators and investor behavior suggest a potential recovery, the next move is expected to determine the market's fate. Especially, long-term moving averages play a critical role in indicating which scenario the price may follow.

Changes in Technical Outlook
Immediately after the new year, the most notable development was Bitcoin breaking above its short-term downtrend and surpassing the 50-day moving average. According to Neuner, the real significance of this move became apparent when the price subsequently pulled back, tested the same level, and held. This behavior, often observed in technical analysis, indicates that the market is gaining strength rather than weakening.

Seeing similar patterns in the charts of Ethereum, Solana, and XRP makes the recovery prospects more meaningful. Unlike a rise unique to a single asset, movements spreading across the market suggest that investor sentiment is beginning to change. Neuner emphasizes that this synchronized outlook indicates a gradual return of risk appetite.

In addition to technical structure, the formation of higher lows and higher highs is another common element observed during recovery processes. The relative performance increase of altcoins and the decline in Bitcoin dominance also imply that investors are starting to take bolder positions.

Critical Levels and Possible Scenarios
The most important threshold highlighted by Neuner is around $107,000, near the 200-day moving average. Historically, during strong bull markets, prices tend to settle above this level, while in weaker periods, the same point often acts as a strong rejection zone. Therefore, the upcoming test will determine whether the current rally is sustainable or temporary.

The weekly chart presents a more cautious picture. Bitcoin falling below the 50-week moving average has often signaled deeper corrections in previous cycles. In past examples, when the price failed to stay above this level, it retreated toward the 200-week moving average. Current estimates place this level at approximately $60,000.

On the demand side, the re-emergence of US-based investors is noteworthy. The premium of Bitcoin’s price compared to other exchanges indicates increased appetite among American buyers. Neuner reminds that most previous rallies started similarly with demand originating from US sources.

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