⭕Night Review (January 8)

Figure 1: Sentiment (Fear & Greed = 29): The market is fearful, but not to the extreme. This usually corresponds to one of two trends: either sideways consolidation for a while or another dip to trigger fear. Currently, it doesn't seem like the emotional environment is ready for an immediate main rally, but it's also not the time to exit at high levels.
Figure 2: Long-term structure (2-year MA multiplier): The price is clearly above the 2-year MA (green line), still far from the 2-year MA ×5 (red line, historical top zone). This indicates that the long-term bull market structure is intact, and we're even early for a "real frenzy." Historical experience is consistent: when it's time to be afraid, prices stick close to the red line; when there's value, prices retrace near the green line. Currently, the price is in the upper-middle zone, which is a retracement/adjustment area within the bull market, not the top. It resembles a mid-bull oscillation period.
Figure 3: Short-term capital game (long-short ratio & volume): The market currently lacks a consensus direction. The long-short ratio is nearly 50:50, with all major exchanges close. In real-time volume, longs and shorts are battling each other, with no side dominating. This indicates it's not a trend phase but a typical oscillation + stop-loss phase. In such a market: chasing the rally → easily crushed; chasing the dip → easily pulled up. The most common movements are: sweeping up and down, grinding time, testing patience.
📌Summary of the overall market condition: The long-term bullish structure remains unchanged, but the short-term has entered a weak oscillation → waiting for a clear direction.

📌Most likely path—ranked by probability

1️⃣ High-level oscillation + another emotional washout (highest probability)
2️⃣ Dip to key support and then recovery (medium probability)
3️⃣ Direct main rally (currently low probability, lacking sentiment)

That's why I've been emphasizing the importance of controlling position size. Only with proper position management can the mindset stay stable and avoid being swept out by market liquidity.