Hello everyone, today is January 3, 2026. Bitcoin has been in a consolidation cycle for over 2 months, and the consolidation period has extended beyond our parallel downtrend channel. Therefore, we need to reconsider our judgment basis. From the four-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is very likely to have formed the left shoulder and head of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, with a high probability of continuing this pattern. Hence, in the short term, we mainly look for long opportunities.

The box consolidation cycle may continue for a while longer, but after such a long period of sideways movement, I believe Bitcoin will soon chart a new direction again. In the short term, our focus should be on whether the resistance level at 90500 points is broken. If it is broken, we can consider adding to long positions.

1. Conservative Long Positions (Institutional Entry) - Entry: Buy on dip at 88700-89000 (hammer or bullish engulfing), with volume confirmation. - Stop Loss: Below 88500 (300 points, single trade loss ≤2%). - Targets: 90000 → 90500, with a breakout target of 91000, take profits in stages. - Position Size: Light position of 2-3%, increase to 5% upon breakout.

2. Aggressive Short Positions (Short-term Trading) - Entry: Resistance at 90500-90700 during rebound (shooting star or bearish engulfing), with insufficient volume. - Stop Loss: Above 91000 (500 points). - Targets: 89800 → 89000, with a breakdown target of 88700. - Position Size: 1-2%, strict stop loss, do not hold overnight.

3. Breakout Strategy (Trend Following) - Upward Break: Break above 90500 with a four-hour close above, go long, stop loss at 90200, targets 91000-91500. - Downward Break: Break below 88700 with a four-hour close below, go short, stop loss at 89000, targets 88000-87500.