#技术分析 Looking at SHIB's recent trend, on-chain data provides the real answer, much clearer than the dramatic performance of the price.

On the surface, a 90% decline looks terrifying, but on-chain signals are the key. What have the smart money been doing all year? Continually reducing their holdings. What about derivatives traders? Almost no one dares to leverage. What does this indicate—no one expects a quick rebound, and speculative enthusiasm has completely cooled down. The market share of Meme coins has fallen to the early-year lows. I've seen this situation many times before—signaling that the whales have already taken profits and retail investors have exited.

But there's a detail worth noting. SHIB on exchanges is experiencing significant outflows, yet the number of holders is actually increasing. The balance of whales has increased by 249% over the past year. This isn't panic selling; it's slow, cold accumulation. The issue is—these big players are not aggressive and are not using leverage, indicating they are also waiting. What are they betting on? The return of the altcoin cycle for a turnaround.

On the technical side, SHIB has formed a descending wedge on the 3-day chart, and in early December, a bullish divergence appeared—when new lows formed, RSI actually moved higher, signaling weakening selling pressure. But I must remind you, this is far from enough to overturn the "dead coin" judgment. The key level is $0.0000092; only a valid breakout above this resistance can confirm a genuine reversal. If it drops below $0.0000075, the entire structure will fail.

Having been in this market for so many years, I've learned one of the most important lessons—don't be fooled by narratives. SHIB isn't dead, but it hasn't shown signs of life either. Right now, it's in survival mode, waiting for signals. The key to technical analysis isn't about stories; it's about where the on-chain real money is flowing. The truth of this wave is: big players are quietly accumulating, but retail investors have already given up.