#美联储降息预期 Seeing the news about the Federal Reserve's rate cut this round, my first reaction is still that old saying: history doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes.

During the 2020 pandemic QE restart, we saw what true liquidity flood looks like — every little wind could trigger a rally, and the market was as hungry as if it had never eaten before. But the current situation is completely different. The Fed did cut rates by 25 basis points, and their stance is quite dovish; theoretically, this should be positive. However, the analysis from Greeks.Live hits the core issue — at the end of December, liquidity itself is the biggest enemy.

I've experienced too many year-end settlement periods; each time it's the same story: options positions pile up, big players prepare for the New Year, retail investors are clearing out for the holidays, and the market behaves like hibernating animals. Now, 50% of options are concentrated at the end of December, and BTC's biggest pain point is stuck at the 100,000 mark. What does this indicate? It shows that the market has already priced in this rate cut, leaving no new imagination space.

CryptoQuant's technical outlook looks good — the 200-day moving average slope has turned positive, and the price has broken above two key moving averages. These signals are usually bullish evidence. But in this special time window, they feel more like a weak rebound rather than a genuine momentum recovery. The implied volatility (IV) in the options market continues to decline, and volatility expectations are decreasing — this reflects the true market sentiment.

Thinking back to the 2018 adjustment, the options market was also particularly dull at year-end, with everyone betting on a slow decline. And that was indeed the case — a turnaround only came after the Spring Festival. The current strategic setup is quite similar; rate cuts are positive, but their effectiveness is severely weakened by the Christmas holiday and settlement period.

My judgment is: don't be overly optimistic about the recent rebound. A true bull market restart should wait until liquidity conditions improve and market sentiment reignites. At this stage, it's wise to guard against sudden positive reversals, but the main trend remains a slow bottoming process. Those rushing to go all-in often end up paying tuition in history.