12/21 BTC welcomes the fourth monthly line 3 consecutive declines, will the historical rebound script be repeated?

12/21 News Interpretation: Bullish and Bearish Signals “Tear” the Market

✅ Long-term bullish undercurrent

E. Trump stated directly: “The biggest families, companies, countries, and sovereign funds are hoarding BTC,” and the long-term layout logic of institutional-level funds remains unchanged;

💰The Federal Reserve has restarted liquidity injections (the first time since 2020), and historically, such operations tend to boost risk assets (both stocks and cryptocurrencies benefit);

📊 Analysts anchor core advantages: The fixed supply of BTC makes it more certain than gold in terms of long-term inflation resistance.

⚠️ Short-term bearish sentiment piling up

📉 The share of altcoins has dropped to a five-year low: funds are concentrating on BTC, while altcoins continue to “bleed”;

🐻 Bearish sentiment is rising: CryptoQuant states that the bear market has begun, and BTC may drop to $70,000; Santiment believes that social media sentiment is overly optimistic, and there is still a risk of dropping to $75,000.

🔴Risk Interlude: In 2025, North Korean hackers stole $2.02 billion in cryptocurrency (an increase of $681 million compared to 2024), further amplifying the industry's security risks;

📉 At the end of the year, the expectation of $100,000 is “cooling off”: Kalshi's market shows that the probability of BTC breaking $100,000 before the end of the year is only about 11%.

Today's observation: BTC experiences its fourth consecutive monthly decline; will historical rebounds be replicated?

Look at the BTC monthly chart (2020 to present):

This is the fourth time that there has been a consecutive decline for 3 months (the previous three times were from April to June 21, from November 21 to January 22, and from April to June 22)

—— After the first three declines, BTC experienced rebounds of varying degrees (for example, after the drop in June 2022, it bottomed out and rebounded).

The key variable now is “liquidity”:

Currently, BTC is showing an “inverse trend” with global M2 liquidity (either risk assets will collectively crash, or BTC will experience a surge in 2026), while the Federal Reserve has just restarted its injection of funds.

This means: the “subsequent script” of this three consecutive declines largely depends on whether liquidity can remain loose – if loosening continues, historical rebounds may repeat;

If liquidity tightens further, it may lead to a new downward path.

Do you think that after this three consecutive declines of BTC, it will replicate the historical rebound?

(Not investment advice, DYOR)

#BTC # Crypto Market Observation