#ETH走势分析

1. Technical Analysis: On the daily chart, the EMA trend indicator shows a clear bearish trend, the Bollinger Bands are expanding downward, and the price is moving along the lower band. The MACD remains below the zero line with a dead cross, and although the green histogram is slightly shrinking, the bearish momentum has not been fully released, with no reversal signal. On the 4-hour chart, the MA10 and MA5 moving averages form a death cross. The RSI indicator has exited the oversold zone, indicating a short-term technical correction is needed, but the rebound strength is limited. The lower Bollinger Band at $2830 acts as a potential support, while the middle band at $3020 serves as short-term resistance.

2. Market and Macro Impact: On the macro level, the Bank of Japan's hawkish stance and the divergence in Federal Reserve policies have triggered a sell-off in global risk assets, leading to a simultaneous weakening of ETH and other cryptocurrencies. Market sentiment remains subdued. As of the 16th, the total 24-hour contract liquidation across the network reached $270 million, with longs suffering heavy losses. Many investors have cut losses and exited, further amplifying price volatility.

3. Key Levels and Trading References: Support levels are concentrated between $2830 and $2900. If the critical support at $2960 is broken, the price is likely to drop toward $2830. Resistance levels are in the ranges of $3020 - $3050 and $3080 - $3130. Short-term strategies could consider light short positions at $3095 - $3145, and long positions at $2881 - $2831, with stop-losses set at 30 points each.