Silver has been surging recently! As of the time of writing, the main COMEX silver futures contract broke through the $60/ounce level for the first time, reaching a high of around $62; the Shanghai silver futures contract also broke out of the consolidation range and firmly broke above the 14,000 yuan mark.

This sharp increase in silver prices, besides macro factors, is driven by several key catalysts to watch closely:

1. Maxed-out macro expectations: CME's "FedWatch" shows an 87.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December. Although there are disagreements within the Federal Reserve, market expectations for rate cuts are very strong, with attention on tomorrow's early morning decision. Additionally, the popular Fed Chair candidate Harker mentioned ample room for rate cuts, aligning with the stance of the market consensus, which is more confident that easing will continue.

2. Persistent tightening on the supply side: Production from major producing countries like Mexico and Peru has declined this year, and silver recycling has not kept pace, leading to a significant global supply gap. Silver inventories at major exchanges have fallen to low levels, with inventory depletion happening very rapidly.

3. Demand side boosting on both ends: Industrially, demand for silver in photovoltaic applications has skyrocketed, and new energy vehicles and AI computing servers have added substantial demand; on the investment side, even more aggressive, with the total global investment demand for silver bars, coins, and ETFs reaching 1.334 billion ounces in 2025, an 8.2% year-on-year increase, setting a new record high, accounting for 37% of total demand.

4. Market sentiment fully ignited: After COMEX silver broke through the $54 resistance level previously, the price continued to lift higher, and everyone is optimistic about further upside potential.

However, short-term risks should be noted: after reaching a historic high, silver prices may experience profit-taking sell-offs, and if there is a divergence in expectations after the rate decision, it could also trigger volatility.