#Strategy扩大比特币持仓 Recently, the style of the crypto market has been a bit magical -- institutions' judgments on the future of $BTC are simply poles apart.

Let's talk about what has happened recently. The sharp drop in October has not yet eased, and in November, the U.S. government experienced the longest shutdown in history, causing the Treasury's general account balance to soar to nearly $1 trillion. The money is locked in the treasury and cannot be released, directly choking market liquidity, and global assets are suffering as a result, with $BTC of course not being spared.

What's more interesting is the attitude of institutions. Galaxy Digital has directly halved its year-end target price from $185,000 to $120,000—this is quite a significant downgrade. However, JPMorgan remains optimistic, insisting that $BTC can reach $170,000 in the next 6 to 12 months. With one being bearish and the other bullish, retail investors are even more confused.

The core logic is actually very simple: the rise and fall of Bitcoin ultimately depends on the liquidity of the US dollar. When there is more money, funds flow into risk assets, and $BTC rises; when money is tight, everyone retreats to government bonds and cash, and the price of cryptocurrencies naturally falls. This time, with the government shutdown dragging on for so long, liquidity is being tightly suppressed, so it’s surprising that the market can perform well.

The key now is to look at the variables ahead. Will the Federal Reserve lower interest rates? What changes will occur in the mid-term elections of 2026? These will directly affect liquidity expectations. Some say that $BTC could reach 170,000 by 2026, while others say it might struggle to even hit 120,000. But to be honest, no one can provide a definitive answer. That's how the market is, always full of divergence and always full of possibilities. Which side do you stand on?